The predictability of oxygen and its metabolic consequences for fisheries on decadal time scales
Temperature and oxygen availability jointly limit marine habitat viability, and can be explained with the Metabolic Index (MI), a physiologically mechanistic framework that explicitly combines the synergistic influence for a given organism. The objectives are to (1) assess the spatiotemporal skill and uncertainty of decadal predictions of environmental variables relevant to fish metabolic processes, (2) produce decadal predictions of the MI for representative taxa in each of the US Large Marine Ecosystems, (3) quantify how MI predictions will influence potential fisheries catches.
Towards the prediction of fisheries on seasonal to multi-annual time scales
Our objective is to more deeply examine the variability, uncertainty, and source of predictability of physical and biogeochemical drivers, and the sensitivity of fisheries to them. Analyses will use an ensemble of seasonal-to-decadal prediction experiments to (1) estimate the amount of fisheries production variance explained by different drivers, (2) assess the skill in the predictability of the most important drivers of fish variability, (3) examine the spatiotemporal variability in the predictability of fisheries.
Incorporating fish in Earth system predictions
Our objective is to extend ESM predictions to include fish explicitly by coupling an existing Fisheries Size and Functional Type model (FEISTY) to the MOM6 ocean general circulation model, thereby enabling direct simulation and prediction of potential fish catch, fish distributions, and food web structure. We will (1) evaluate and understand the dependencies and interactions between the higher trophic levels in FEISTY and the lower trophic levels represented in the underlying ocean biogeochemistry model, (2) tune and optimize solutions with empirical datasets, (3) produce an analysis of global ocean-sea-ice hindcast integrations of MOM6 with biogeochemistry and fish.
NOAA MAPP Marine Ecosystems Task Force
The goal of all MAPP task forces is to create larger scale initiatives, communities of practice, leadership opportunities, organization around a topic, and value-added knowledge. The topic of the funded projects within this task force is “Modeling Climate Impacts on Predictability of Fisheries and Other Living Marine Resources.” The co-leads of this task force specifically aim to write at least two peer-reviewed journal articles, one a review of prediction in relation to fisheries and the other a synthesis paper of task force research, and also a white paper on how the task force has moved prediction science forward over this 3-year period.
The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP)
The goal of Fish-MIP is to bring together disparate marine ecosystem models to help better understand and project the long-term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems, and to use our findings to help inform policy. There are more than 40 international marine ecosystem modelers in the network. Fish-MIP has produced 5 publications, and has 2 in prep. Petrik is one of the Earth-system model coordinators, one of co-coordinators of the global model simulations, and the main contact for the FEISTY model. Recent publications have been cited in the 6th Assessment Report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.